IndexBox just released a new report: "United States-Pistachio-Market Analysis, Forecast, Scale, Trends and Insights". The following is a summary of the main findings of the report.

In 2021, the U.S. pistachio production will break the record of previous years due to the large production and the increase in average production. This will help expand exports, mainly to the EU and China, and maintain stable prices in the domestic market. Entering 2022, the United States will consolidate its position in the global market because its closest competitor, Iran, faces lower production, which will cause its pistachio reserves to dry up.

The United States expects that the pistachio harvest in 2021 will hit a record high. The USDA forecasts that the output of shelled nuts will increase from 352,000 tons to 454,000 tons, which is equivalent to 230,000 tons of shelled products. According to data from the Pistachio Management Committee (ACP), the average yield per acre in 2020 will increase by 30% year-on-year, and the planting area will increase by 216,000 acres. A bumper harvest should be able to maintain stable prices in the domestic market.

U.S. exports are expected to increase by 40% in 2021. Although the trade relationship with the latter is overcast, the EU and China are expected to become the main markets for American pistachios. With a 33% global market share, China will remain the largest importer of pistachios.

The United States will continue to maintain its global leading position in pistachio production, slightly higher than Iran, the second largest producer. Unlike the United States, Iran predicts that its output will decline in 2021, but due to the supply of reserves last year, the country will maintain its export level. With the depletion of Iran’s reserves, the United States is expected to strengthen its position in the global export market in 2022 and consolidate its position as the world’s leading supplier.

The increase in demand for pistachios will be mainly driven by global population growth. During the pandemic, the retail sales of pistachios have been declining due to people's rejection of expensive and non-essential foods and real income decline. This larger trend is the main factor hindering market growth. With the gradual lifting of quarantine measures, the HoReCa market segment will begin to recover, thereby boosting demand in the B2B sector and expanding the pistachio market.

In 2020, the U.S. pistachio production is estimated to be 352,000 tons, an increase of 4.9% in 2019. During the period under review, there was a significant increase in output. Pistachio production reached a peak of 448,000 tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2020, production remained at a low figure. The moderate increase in pistachio production in the United States was mainly due to the significant expansion of the harvest area and the significant reduction in yield data. In terms of value, pistachio production will increase significantly to $2.9B in 2020.

In 2020, overseas shipments of pistachios fell by -22.7% to 178,000 tons for the first time since 2015, ending the four-year continuous upward trend. In terms of value, pistachio exports have shrunk sharply to $1.5B in 2020. But in general, exports have seen significant growth in the past decade.

China (46,000 tons), Germany (25,000 tons) and Belgium (22,000 tons) are the main destinations for US pistachio exports, which together account for 52% of total exports. It is followed by Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Spain, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Italy, the United Kingdom, France and Israel, which together account for 33%.

In 2020, the average export price of pistachios from the United States was US$8,325 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 3%. During the past eight years, it has grown at an average annual rate of 2.6%. The average prices in major overseas markets vary. In 2020, the countries with the highest prices are Spain (US$9,350 per ton) and Italy (US$9,279 per ton), while exports to Vietnam (US$7,267 per ton) and China (US$7,615 per ton) have the lowest average prices.

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